Tag: index

By Tom Head for The South African 

A study released by Ipsos this year cites citizens of Mzansi as the most ignorant in the world. We came out on top of the “Misperceptions Index” – a table which charts the 38 nations surveyed about the biggest concerns in their country. South Africans are seen as being the most ignorant of the lot, after a series of questions found that we tend to overestimate and misunderstand certain issues.

The dictionary definition of “ignorant” is what’s being applied here – meaning to have “a general lack of awareness or knowledge”. This study doesn’t imply that South Africans are rude or crass.

What makes South Africans ‘ignorant’?
Of the 10 social issues analysed, South African perceptions are the worst in the following areas:

Murder rate

85% of people in South Africa believe the murder rate is higher than it actually is. Predictions averaged to be 29% higher than the actual figures.

Foreign-born prisoners

This sample size of South Africans believe that 50% of prisoners are foreigners, when in fact, that number is below 20%.

Teenage pregnancy

South Africa ranks as highly as several Latin American countries when it comes to guessing the teenage pregnancy rate. Our participants incorrectly guessed that 44% of 15-19-year-olds are having children, whereas the actual figure is 4.4%.

Most ignorant countries ranked by Ipsos
The South Africans surveyed by Ipsos tend to overestimate these figures rather than anything else. The only perception where they fell short was related to religious beliefs. In general, it was thought that 67% of our countrymen and women believe in heaven – that figure is actually up at 84%.

Brazil, The Philippines, Peru and India make up the top five “ignorant” countries. The three least ignorant countries were all Scandinavian – Sweden came out on top, with Norway and Denmark emerging as the second and third most perspective countries respectively.

Business confidence worse than in 2017

By Asha Speckman for TimesLive

The economy was unlikely to shake off anaemic growth in the second quarter of this year‚ economists said on Tuesday after a dip in the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) Business Confidence Index confirmed their concerns.

The Sacci Business Confidence dipped to 93.7 index points in June from 94 index points previously. The index has slipped each month from a high of 99.7 in January this year.

John Ashbourne‚ Africa economist at Capital Economics said: “The latest drop strengthens our view that South Africa’s economy remained weak in quarter two.”

Economic growth contracted by 2.2% in the first quarter of this year after a stronger finish in 2017.

The Sacci index is a measure of business activity and is based on several indicators including energy production‚ trade figures and the performance of financial markets.

Seven of the thirteen sub-indices reflected negativity in the business environment.

The largest negative influences were the weaker rand exchange rate‚ lower real retail sales‚ a decline in the value of building plans passed and higher energy costs.

A rise in merchandise import and export volumes and new vehicle sales impacted positively.

The risk of a global trade war and potential knock-on effects also weighed negatively on the outlook from certain industries in South Africa‚ the survey noted.

Ashbourne anticipated further clarity when mining and manufacturing production and sales data for May are published on Thursday.

Weakness in these sectors is‚ however‚ expected to continue. The recent Absa purchasing manufacturer’s index‚ which measures activity in the manufacturing sector‚ dropped to 47.9 index points in June from 49.8 in May.

The index reading was 50.9 in April. A reading below the 50 neutral mark indicates a possible slowdown in business activity.

Lara Hodes‚ an economist at Investec‚ said about second quarter growth: “We’re not expecting positive news.”

Hodes said growth in mining was tempered by continued uncertainty over the mining charter and a restrained investment.

Investec expects an improvement to -3.5% for mining in May compared to -4.3% previously. It has forecast manufacturing to be -1.4% from 1.1% in April compared to a BNP Paribas expectation of 0.1% growth from 1.1% previously. However‚ Hodes said retail trade sales and consumer confidence data to be released next week would complete the picture.

Ashbourne said the potential slowdown had prompted London-based Capital Economics to temper its growth forecast for the year to 1.3% from 2% previously.

National Treasury has forecast 1.5% for the year and the Reserve Bank expects 1.7%.

Sacci said: “It has become imperative that structural economic matters hampering inclusive economic growth should be addressed with economic rationality. Uncertainties surrounding economic policy direction and position should be clarified so that investor and business confidence can reaffirm itself.”

One of the most important findings of Rand Merchant Bank’s (RMB) seventh edition of Where to Invest in Africa is that the continent could find itself hovering on the brink of disaster if it continues to depend on its current economic fundamentals and does not usher in economic diversification. Where to Invest in Africa 2018 highlights those countries that have understood the need to adapt to the prolonged slowdown in commodity prices and sluggish levels of production growth – and those that haven’t.

The theme for Where to Invest in Africa 2018 is “Money Talks” and this edition “follows the money” on the African continent to evaluate aspects crucial to each country’s economic performance. The report focuses on the main sources of dollar revenues in Africa, which allows it to measure the most important income generators and identify investment opportunities.

“Over the past three years, some African governments have had to implement deep and painful budget cuts, announce multiple currency devaluations and adopt hawkish monetary policy stances – all as a result of a significant drop in traditional revenues,” says RMB Africa analyst Celeste Fauconnier, a co-author of Where to Invest in Africa 2018.

“Some countries have been more nimble and effective than others in managing shortfalls,” says Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana, also an RMB Africa analyst and co-author of the report. “But major policy dilemmas have ensued, forcing governments to balance economically prudent solutions with what is politically palatable.”

“The last three years have sounded an alarm, amplifying what is now a dire need for the economies of Africa to shift their focus from traditional sources of income to other viable alternatives,” says RMB Africa analyst Neville Mandimika, a contributor to Where to Invest in Africa 2018.

“These years have exposed a number of African nations to severe economic stress – especially that of liquidity shortages. Unfortunately, there is no quick fix to infuse into a context as complex as this, and traditional forms of revenue will remain a reality for many years to come,” says RMB Africa analyst Ronak Gopaldas, also a co-author.

In this edition of Where to Invest in Africa 2018, RMB’s Investment Attractiveness Index, which balances economic activity against the relative ease of doing business, illustrates how subdued levels of economic activity have diluted several scores on the index when compared with last year, resulting in some interesting movements within the top 10.

Notable omissions from the top 10 this year are Nigeria and Algeria, which have fallen from numbers six and 10 to numbers 13 and 15, respectively. Ethiopia and Rwanda, on the other hand, have climbed three and four places, respectively.

But probably the most notable change is that South Africa has fallen from first place for the first time since the inception of the report, ceding its place to Egypt, which is now Africa’s most attractive investment destination.

Egypt displaced South Africa largely because of its superior economic activity score and sluggish growth rates in South Africa, which have deteriorated markedly over the past seven years. South Africa also faces mounting concerns over issues of institutional strength and governance, though in its favour are its currency, equity and capital markets, which are still a cut above the rest, with many other African nations facing liquidity constraints.

Morocco retained its third position for a third consecutive year, having benefitted from a greatly enhanced operating environment since the “Arab Spring” that began in 2010. Surprisingly, Ethiopia, a country dogged by sociopolitical instability, displaced Ghana to take fourth spot mostly because of its rapid economic growth, having brushed past Kenya as the largest economy in East Africa. Ghana’s slide to fifth position was mostly due to perceptions of worsening corruption and weaker economic freedom.

Kenya holds firm in the top 10 at number six. Despite being surpassed by Ethiopia, investors are still attracted by Kenya’s diverse economic structure, pro-market policies and brisk consumer spending growth. A host of business-friendly reforms aimed at rooting out corruption and steady economic growth helped Tanzania climb two places to number seven. Rwanda re-entered the top 10 having spent two years on the periphery, helped by being one of the fastest-reforming economies in the world, high real growth rates and its continuing attempts to diversify its economy.

At number nine, Tunisia has made great strides in advancing political transition while an improved business climate has been achieved through structural reforms, greater security and social stability. Côte d’Ivoire slipped two places to take up 10th position. Although its business environment scoring is still relatively low, its government has made significant strides in inviting investment into the country, leading to a strong increase in foreign direct investment over the years and resulting in one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa.

For the first time, Nigeria does not feature in the top 10, with its short-term investment appeal having been eroded by recessionary conditions. Uganda is steadily closing in on the top 10, though market activity is likely to remain subdued after a tumultuous 2016 marred by election-related uncertainty, a debilitating drought and high commercial lending rates. Though Botswana, Mauritius and Namibia are widely rated as investment-grade economies, they do not feature in the top 10 mostly because of the relatively small sizes of their markets – market size has been a key consideration in the report’s methodology.

Where to Invest in Africa 2018 also includes 191 jurisdictions around the world, and measures Africa’s performance relative to other country groupings. The unfortunate reality is that African countries are still at the lower end of the global performance spectrum, which continues to be dominated by the US, the UK, Australia and Germany.

Source: Business Day 

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My Office News Ⓒ 2017 - Designed by A Collective


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