We have been here before: glued to our screens on the promise that Jacob Zuma is about to lose his job. Time and time again, he survives, and we’re left to rue our premature excitement. SONA 2018 may have just changed all that.
President Jacob Zuma could well be on the cusp of a recall. When you think about all his previous scandals, then it becomes apparent this is an incredibly tight spot for the President.
Does no SONA mean no Zuma?
National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete stood on the steps of Parliament, and delivered a damaging announcement to Zuma’s bid for survival. Mbete revealed that the threat of disruptions led to her writing to the President asking him to postpone.
At the same time, Mbete said they were informed that President Zuma was already in the process of writing to her to request a postponement.
It seems today like the ANC are finally putting the final nail in the coffin of Count Zuma. Yes, he’s risen from the dead before – staying in a job against improbable odds – but now it seems his political career is six feet under. This judgement on SONA 2018 is something not even the Teflon one can recover from.
Will Jacob Zuma lose his job on Wednesday 7 February?
The ANC NEC cancelled a long-awaited and historic meeting that was to be held-today, in which the future of the President was to be discussed. Don’t be fooled by all the diplomatic language, here. They want Zuma out, and are pushing harder than ever before.
If Jacob Zuma had any long term future with as a leader, he needed to deliver SONA. It would have been a defiant statement of staying power, and a bruising PR defeat for Cyril Ramaphosa’s efforts to revitalise the ANC.
Will he resign?
Despite the very public lack of support from him in the government’s hierarchy, it is our view he still won’t go of his own accord. And the only way out from here will be a recall, which looks set to be confirmed this week.
In Mbete’s Cape Town Address, she effectively condemned JZ to the politcal wilderness. The Speaker seemingly suggested that SONA cannot happen whilst Zuma is the Head of State:
“The postponement will be no longer than one week. We need to consider the mood of the country, and only go ahead when we know we’ll have a very productive SONA.”
“We have been meeting with ANC stakeholders and participants since last Monday. We aren’t just looking at logistics, we’re listening to our political voices. We are continuing to interact with Cyril Ramaphosa on this, for when we talk about Parliament, we talk to this office.”
When will SONA 2018 take place?
Interestingly, Mbete said she’d expect to see SONA take place next week. So it would seem she feels Zuma hasn’t much, if any, time left. ANC Chief Whip Jackson Mthembu also stuck the knife in, saying that the party “welcomes the decision made in Parliament”. He wouldn’t be drawn on when Zuma would face recall, though.
If this is Zexit eve, then it looks like he’s going down fighting. The certain indignity of a recall may just be the most fitting end to a Presidency swamped with problems.
By Tom Head for The South African
The rand eased in early trade on Tuesday, relinquishing some of the gains it notched up in a previous session on news that the ruling political party, the ANC was deciding whether to cut short president Jacob Zuma’s tenure as head of state.
According to a report by Reuters, the currency is expected to trade in the range of R12.00 to R12.25 on Wednesday, after it eased off its highs against the dollar during European trade on Monday.
The currency is tracking a wave of positive sentiment following the appointment of deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa, as ANC leader in December, while the ruling party’s top leadership has also decided that Zuma must leave office, with speculation about the timing.
Ramaphosa is expected to adopt more business-friendly policies, even though he enjoys the support of the communist party and the biggest labor union federation. His election as ANC leader helped boost the rand 10% last month.
At 09h55 on Tuesday, the rand softened against the dollar, but firmed against the pound and the euro:
• Dollar/Rand: R12.09 0.33%
• Pound/Rand: R16.90 -0.13%
• Euro/Rand: R14.83 -1.43%
A report by The Guardian late on Monday reiterated that plans are in place to oust Zuma within the next two weeks, despite comments from secretary general Ace Magashule that NEC had not yet made a decision on the future of the current president.
Investec Bank economist Annabel Bishop said in a note at the start of the week that the rand could strengthen to as much as R11 to the dollar, should the president be forced to step down.
Further strengthening would also cause fuel price cuts and place downward pressure on inflation, with the possibility of the rand moving towards R10 to the dollar should Ramaphosa continue to make reforms and promote growth, she said.
Bloomberg market analyst Robert Brand also remained positive on the currency, stating that it was possible for Ramaphosa to continue the rally by continuing to clamp down on corrupt state-owned enterprises such as Eskom, and possibly even move away from some of the ANC’s more populist ideas (such as land reform) so as to encourage continued foreign investment.
Robert Mugabe resigned as Zimbabwe’s president on Tuesday, shortly after parliament began an impeachment process to end his nearly four decades of rule.
The 93-year-old clung on for a week after an army takeover and expulsion from his own ruling Zanu-PF party, which also told him to leave power.
Wild celebrations broke out at a joint sitting of parliament when speaker Jacob Mudenda announced Mugabe’s resignation and suspended the impeachment procedure.
The origin of Mugabe’s sudden downfall lies in rivalry between members of Zimbabwe’s ruling elite over who will succeed him, rather than popular protests against his rule. The army seized power after Mugabe sacked Zanu-PF’s favourite to succeed him, Emmerson Mnangagwa, to smooth a path to the presidency for his wife Grace, known to her critics as “Gucci Grace” for her reputed fondness for luxury shopping.
Mnangagwa, a former security chief known as The Crocodile, is expected to take over as president.
Source: Business Live